The MSP Renewal Scenario Modeler

An Excel-based scenario tool for MSP owners running the numbers on the 2027 renewal cycle. Model every service line against three renewal doors — pass-through, absorb, or reprice to outcome — and see the EBITDA impact before you sit down with the client.

The 2027 renewal cycle is going to force every MSP to answer a question the last decade let them dodge: as AI quietly reclaims capacity across your stack, are you passing that savings through, absorbing it, or repricing to what the client actually gets? The three doors have very different economics — and most MSPs are guessing.

The Renewal Scenario Modeler is the working spreadsheet that stops the guessing. Built for MSP owners, service leaders, and the advisors who work alongside them, it lets you model each service line against all three renewal doors in parallel, using your real cost basis, real utilization, and realistic reclaimed-capacity assumptions.

What's inside

• Cost Basis Calculator preloaded with a realistic $188/hr loaded senior-advisor rate — override with your own numbers in seconds
• Three-door renewal modeler: pass-through, absorb, reprice-to-outcome — side by side, per service line
• EBITDA impact and effective-rate outputs for every scenario, so you can see the trade-offs before you commit
• Reclaimed-capacity input that lets you dial your AI displacement assumptions per role and per task
• Worked example built into the file — a mid-market MSP renewal walked through end to end — so you never start from a blank sheet
• Methodology tab that shows every formula and assumption, so your team can pressure-test the logic

Who it's for

• MSP owners preparing for the 2027 renewal cycle
• Service leaders and CFOs stress-testing pricing decisions before they hit a client conversation
• Consultants and fractional CFOs advising MSPs on service-model repricing
• Private equity operators and diligence teams evaluating MSP portfolios against AI-era capacity assumptions

Format

Microsoft Excel workbook (.xlsx). Opens in Excel, Google Sheets, and Numbers. Works offline. Yours to keep and reuse across every client engagement. No login, no seat license, no subscription.

What you get after purchase

Instant download of the workbook, plus a one-page quick-start guide walking through the Cost Basis Calculator and your first modeled scenario.

Delivered by Redraw Works — the advisory operating system for the AI-era MSP. www.redrawworks.com | hello@redrawworks.com