The outlook for the German window and door market in 2025 appears to be one of stagnation, with expected declines in production and sales. The VDMA (Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau) has revised its 2024 forecast, anticipating a 15% drop in the woodworking machinery sector. This follows a record year in 2023, where production reached €4.2 billion. However, the market is expected to decline to €3.6 billion in 2024.
The Market for Windows and Doors in Germany: Declines and Shifting Focus
The window market in Germany is set to experience a decline of 8.4% in 2024 and a further 1.3% drop in 2025, with the total number of window units expected to fall from 13.98 million units in 2022 to approximately 12.4 million units in 2024.
Similarly, the market for external doors will also see a decrease of 9.4% in 2024, with a slight further dip of 0.4% in 2025.
Reasons for the Decline
Several factors are contributing to this downturn:
• Political uncertainty and a weak construction market have combined with reduced investment due to unclear subsidy conditions.
• There is a noticeable shift from new construction to renovation, which, though important, is not enough to offset the declines in new building projects.
• Interest rates and inflation have further slowed down the market.
Despite these challenges, there are signs of optimism. As noted by Dr. Bernhard Dirr, head of the woodworking machinery sector at VDMA, lower interest rates and a potential recovery in the construction sector could help revive demand, indirectly benefiting the woodworking machinery market.
Renovation as an Opportunity
Despite the overall market weakening, there remains a substantial potential for renovation projects:
• New construction in the residential sector is expected to drop by 47% from 2023 to 2025.
• The renovation sector, however, will see a smaller decline of around 9%, equating to 885,000 window units.
• Industry associations such as VFF (Verband Fenster- und Fassadenbau) are urging the government to strengthen incentives and legal frameworks for energy-efficient building renovations.
Differences Between Residential and Non-Residential Sectors
• Non-residential buildings (such as schools, hospitals, etc.) show greater potential for renovation.
• The use of security windows (with enhanced security features) is rising, particularly in the non-residential sector, where over 40% of the doors now feature increased security.
Key Conclusions and Recommendations
To mitigate the decline, a clear government strategy is needed:
• Stronger incentives for energy-efficient renovations.
• Faster project approvals to stimulate market activity.
• Stable legal frameworks and better tax policies to support the renovation sector.
While 2024 is expected to be a difficult year, focusing on the renovation market could prevent further declines and potentially stabilize the market by 2025.
Looking Ahead: The Impact on the Window and Door Market
The overall window market in Germany is expected to decline by 43% from 2022 to 2024, with the residential sector seeing an even steeper drop of 50%. In the renovation sector, the market has stabilized, and a slight increase is expected in 2025, though the total market is still projected to show a 5% decline.
Similarly, the market for external doors will experience:
• 22.3% decline in new construction in 2024.
• A slight recovery in renovation (+1.2%) in 2025, though new construction will continue to fall by 6.3%.
The Rising Importance of Security Features
In 2024, 62.6% of all doors will feature enhanced security characteristics, particularly as the market shifts from individual houses to multi-family buildings. In the residential sector, over 70% of doors will have additional security features, while in the non-residential sector, the figure is around 40%.
Unmet Government Goals
Frank Lange of VFF emphasizes the dramatic 50% drop in the window market for new buildings in just three years. Even if the renovation segment holds steady, the overall goals for both new construction and renovation have not been met.
The government’s renovation strategy has proven insufficient. To stabilize the market, the following are necessary:
• Stronger incentives.
• Stable legal frameworks.
• A better tax policy.
Final Takeaways
• Sustainable materials are becoming increasingly important in the window industry, reflecting ecological demands.
• Plastic remains the dominant material in external doors, with a 38.4% market share, followed closely by metal.
• VFF has announced the next major conference for April 2025, where they will present updated market projections.
Source: Bauelemente 11/24.